I save Defensive for last since it can slightly offset the price of having Star Forts as well as letting your northern mountain "wall" kill off enemy invaders slowly. You can fend off superior numbers with professional troops as well as have powerful galleys vs the Ottos. Quality is much more valuable than Quantity if you have good morale and discipline, which you can get from Religious/Econ/Quantity/Papal Ideas.
Plus the bonuses of Catholic events and Devotion makes taxes a no brainer. Econ is obvious, since you don't need ships or trade ideas if you control Genoa and Venice. Obvi Religious is good mid game when the reformation starts or for venturing outside of Italy and into Muslim lands. Aristocratic is great for boosting manpower, defensive cores, meshes well with Innovative and Economics (80% tax efficiency? Yes please). I choose Diplomatic over Influence since you don't need vassals in Italy, you need alliances and the policies that come with Diplomatic. Having Innovative with Curia Controller is quite wonderful btw. You don't really need religious early on because the reformation is quite a while away and you already have wonderful boosts to becoming Curia controller. The reason I chose these was because of Papal Ideas, the Curia bonuses and the accompanying policies (which are OP). I finished with Defensive then Influence (if at all). A little tip I found immensely useful was to release Avignon as a March and then feed them Provence, then when you get strong enough to fight France feed them a chunk of Southern France.Personally I went Innovative, Diplomatic, Aristocratic for early game. Once you've grabbed Southern Italy you can start looking towards Balkan and Greek Lands as well as North Africa.
The only people who should really care about you eating a chunk of Southern Italy are Aragon, Naples (Who will be truced out and unable to join a coalition) and some of the Northern Italian nations which you should be eyeing up next anyway. Getting an Alliance with Castile is also a very good idea because you can declare on Aragon and call them in to take lands from Naples while you wait for the Shadow Kingdom event to pop (Make sure you leave the Empire) as well as letting you AE with the HRE subside a bit. Once you've joined the Empire you can just slowly eat your way up into Northern Italy. Yea as SPAMbuca said Excommunicating Florence ASAP then improving with Austria and joining the HRE is probably the best opening move.
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